Stock market indicator

🟢 Status: 24.03.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: The US Federal Reserve surprises traders and investors and the rally continues.

But what was so surprising? The interest rate has remained the same, hasn't it?

It was said at the meeting that the Fed still expects three interest rate cuts in 2024. Three interest rate cuts are also currently planned for next year, 2025. This makes investors bullish and continues to drive the rally. You can read more about the interest rate forecast in my current Euro-US-Dollar analysis.

This shows once again that future expectations are traded on the stock market and not the current reality.

All major US indices reach new all-time highs.

Important US dates:

• 28.03.2024 US gross domestic product Q4 (GDP)

• 29.03.2024 US core PCE index (inflation data)

I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities until the end of the year.

📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post. 👉 To the S&P 500 analysis

Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉

🟢 Status: 17.03.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: A negative inside bar is forming on the weekly chart of the S&P500 and for the first time in 8 weeks a week without a new all-time high. Is this a sign that the well-deserved correction is imminent? Only the Dow Jones index is making new all-time highs. A sign that the big money is being shifted into interest rate-resistant stocks.

There is a US Federal Reserve meeting next Wednesday. It is highly likely that the direction for the next few weeks will be decided there. Further up or a correction for the time being.

Important US dates:

• 20.03.2024 FED meeting and interest rate decision

Will the rally take a break from Wednesday/Thursday?

I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities until the end of the year.

📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.

👉 To the S&P 500 analysis

Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉

🟢 Status: 10.03.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: Another week with new all-time highs in the S&P500 and NASDAQ Index. There are still no signs of weakness in the chart. Last week the rollover into the June contract was completed in the futures market. Trading volumes and open interest remain strong.

The US economy is robust and it is a US presidential election year. This is causing share prices to rise.

Volatility is rising slightly, but is still at a very low level. No sign of weakness.

Important US dates:

• 12.03.2024 US inflation data (CPI)

When will the rally in the indices take a breather?

I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities until the end of the year.

📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.

👉 To the S&P 500 analysis

Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉

🟢 Status: 03.03.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: The upward trend of the US indices simply continues. There is no sign of weakness in the chart and it seems that all short traders had to rotate their positions.

The US economy is looking strong and it is a US presidential election year. This is causing share prices to rise.

The seasonal weakness is being ignored and volatility is falling again significantly.

Important US dates:

• 06.03.2024 Speech by FED Chairman Powell

• 07.03.2024 Speech by FED Chairman Powell

When will the rally in the indices take a breather?

I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities until the end of the year.

📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.

👉 To the S&P 500 analysis

Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉

🟢 Status: 24.02.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicatort is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: Wohwww, what a bull market, mainly driven by the 7 big US stocks.

Last week Nvidia released hammer numbers, which moved the whole AI sector higher. All US indices hit new all-time highs, yet the NASDAQ showed significant weakness against the Dow Jones and S&P 500. Volatility continues to diverge from price.

Nevertheless, these are all just small signs of weakness. The reporting season is drawing to a close and large investors will probably be looking more closely at the inflation figures and the first interest rate cut in 2024 over the next few weeks. If the interest rate cut does not happen in March and May, there will be another correction as a breather until the end of the year.

What does this mean for us as investors?

Corrections remain buying opportunities. So if the S&P500 corrects again to the 4,700 point range, this is a very attractive buying level.

Important US dates:

• 29.02.2024 US PCE price index (inflation)

When will the rally in the indices take a breather? Investors should think about taking profits and have enough cash to build up positions again after the correction. It looks as if the market is currently somewhat overheated.

However, I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities.

📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post. 👉 To the S&P 500 analysis

Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉

🟢 Status: 18.02.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: The US reporting season is drawing to a close. Of the US heavyweights, only Nvidia has not published any figures. These will be published on Wednesday after the close of trading. Last Tuesday's US inflation data led to a brief sell-off and a significant increase in volatility. Will the S&P 500 change its 15-year seasonal trend in the coming week?

The S&P 500 Index has already risen by 4.65% since the beginning of the year and I think there will be attractive entry prices again in March. The DOW Jones and the Nasdaq Index are showing a COT sell signal.

What does this mean for us as investors?

Corrections remain buying opportunities. So if the S&P500 corrects again to the 4,700 point range, these are very likely to be very attractive buying levels.

Important US quarterly figures: - 21.02-2024 Nvidia (after-hours)

Important US dates: - 19.02.2024 US holiday - 21.02.2024 FED Meeting Minutes

It still smells like a correction. Investors should think about taking profits and have enough cash to rebuild positions after the correction. It looks as if the market is currently somewhat overheated.

However, I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities.

📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.

👉 To the S&P 500 analysis

Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉

🟢 Status: 11.02.2024 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: Technology stocks are pushing the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Index to new all-time highs. The upward trend remains intact and the US indices are following the 15-year seasonality.

This reached its high on February 15. I am curious to see whether the indices will continue to follow this curve or whether the rally will simply continue. The S&P 500 Index is already up 4.65 % since the beginning of the year and I think there will be attractive entry prices again in March.

What does this mean for us as investors?

Corrections are still buying opportunities. So if the S&P500 corrects again to the 4700-point range, these will most likely be very attractive buying levels.

Important US economic data:

• 13.02.2024 US inflation data (CPI)

My medium-term analysis is somewhat cautious despite new all-time highs in the S&P 500 Index. However, I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities.

📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.

👉 To the S&P 500 analysis

Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉

🟢 Status: 04.02.2024 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: Wednesday was the US Federal Reserve meeting with an interest rate outlook, and the head of the central bank linked the decision on when the first rate cut will come to the US economic data. If the US economy and the labor market remain strong over the next few weeks, there will again be no rate cut at the next meeting in March.

This means for the next few weeks. All strong economic data can lead to negative stock market prices, as this means that interest rates will remain at the current level for longer. -> Good news is bad news.

What does this mean for us as investors?

Corrections are buying opportunities. So if the S&P500 corrects again to the 4700 point range, these are most likely attractive buying levels.

The quarterly figures from Meta and Amazon were very positive, and both stocks pushed the S&P500 to new all-time highs on Thursday and Friday.

The only interesting thing is that the NASDAQ technology index has not yet matched these all-time highs.

Important US economic data:

• 05.02.2024 FED press conference

• 08.02.2024 Unemployment figures

My medium-term analysis is somewhat cautious despite new all-time highs in the S&P 500 Index. However, I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities.

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🟢 Status: 28.01.2024 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: The upward trend continues. Nevertheless, a divergence to the trading volume is forming again on Friday. This week will be exciting, as the Fed's interest rate decision is on Wednesday. Interest rates will remain unchanged at the current 96.9%. Much more decisive for the markets is the outlook for the coming months.

The US economy has been very robust in recent weeks. Unemployment figures were lower than expected, GDP in Q4 202023 was significantly better than expected, as were US home sales. I don't think the Fed will want to cut rates in the coming months either. We will see.

The VIX volatility index is not showing any new all-time lows. This also points to slight uncertainty.

The reporting season is underway. This week, 108 US companies are publishing their quarterly figures.

Highlights are:

• Tuesday after the close of trading: Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), AMD

• Wednesday before the market opens: Mastercard

• Thursday after market close: Apple, Amazon, Meta (Facebook)

Important US economic data

• 31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision

Despite new all-time highs, my medium-term analysis is somewhat cautious due to the lack of volume in the S&P 500 Index.

🟢 Status: 21.01.2024 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: The upward trend continues. The major US technology companies are driving the indices to new all-time highs. What a reaction to Thursday's strong unemployment figures. Normally this means that the Fed will not cut interest rates for the time being. This reaction can already be seen in US government bonds and the US dollar. However, major investors are unlikely to see any impact on Apple, Microsoft and the like, as these companies were the main drivers of the US indices last week.

The upward trend in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Index is not confirmed by trading volumes and open interest. Only the NASDAQ confirms the upward trend with volume and open interest.

The VIX volatility index is also not showing any new all-time lows. This also shows slight uncertainty.

The reporting season begins. This week, 73 US companies will publish their quarterly figures. The highlight is likely to be Tesla on Wednesday after the close of trading.

Important US economic data:

• 25.01.2024 US initial jobless claims

• 25.01.204 US inflation figures PCE core price index

• 31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision

Despite new all-time highs, my medium-term analysis is somewhat cautious due to the lack of turnover in the S&P 500 Index.

🟠 Status: 14.01.2024 🟠 My inloopo stock market indicator is orange.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟠 Trend: neutral

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: The US stock markets are closed on Monday for a holiday and a short trading week lies ahead.

The reporting season started last week with the US banking sector. Next week, 23 other medium-sized companies will follow. The real action will then start on January 23.

The US stock markets closed on a positive note this week, but below the all-time high and with lower turnover than in previous weeks. Inflation and labor market data received a mixed reception. For me, this is a sign of uncertainty ahead of the FED meeting at the end of January and there could be further profit-taking in the next 2-3 weeks.

Important US dates:

• 18.01.2024 US initial jobless claims

• 31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision

The sideways phase mentioned last week is developing. If the market falls below 4750 points on a sustained basis, the next target is 4600 points on the downside.

Until the US Federal Reserve meeting, I am more cautious with new investments and am taking profits for the time being. There is a clear discrepancy between the Fed's words and the expected interest rate cuts. If expectations are not met, there could be a major correction.

My medium-term analysis is that a sideways/slightly downward market is forming.

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🟢 Status: 07.01.2024 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟠 Trend: neutral

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: The year 2024 begins with a correction on the US stock markets. The first target of 4700 points was almost reached on Friday. However, there was follow-up buying at the close of trading on Friday, which led to a positive divergence again. The coming week will show whether there are signs of a trend reversal.

A look at the COT data shows a mixed picture for the 3 major US indices. In the S&P 500, commercial market participants are clearly long. In the NASDAQ and Dow Jones, on the other hand, they are short. In the Russell 2000, market participants are neutral and are waiting for a signal from the US Federal Reserve as to how monetary policy will proceed in 2024.

2024 is a US presidential election year and historically a positive year for the stock market.

Important US dates in the new year:

• 11.01.2024 US consumer price index (inflation data)

• 11.01.2024 US unemployment figures (initial claims)

• 31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision

The sideways phase mentioned last week is developing. If the market falls below 4700 points on a sustained basis, the next support level will be 4600 points.

Until the FED meeting, I am more cautious with new investments and am taking profits for the time being. There is a clear discrepancy between the Fed's words and the expected interest rate cuts. If expectations are not met, there could be a major correction.

My medium-term analysis is still positive.

🟢 Status: 31.12.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: The year 2023 has come to an end and the 3 major US indices have reached a new all-time high. Who would have thought that? After all, the newspapers reported an impending financial crash before the end of 2023. Or is it coming now in 2024? I will discuss this question in detail in my New Year's webinar on January 7.

The fact is that I no longer base my investment decisions on the news. This leads to many wrong decisions. Either profits are not realized and you still hope for a continuation of the upswing or you are invested too late, as probably happened to many investors in 2023. This is exactly why I developed the inloopo stock market traffic light, so that I can make data-based and reproducible decisions. And this year has once again shown that this approach is the right one, as all my accounts are at all-time highs.

Important US dates in the new year: - 31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision

I think that we will see more of a sideways phase over the next few weeks and that there may be good opportunities to enter the S&P 500 again at around 4700 points. Looking ahead to the next interest rate decision at the end of January, some investors are unsure about what will happen next. Nevertheless, my medium-term outlook for 2024 is very positive. The stock market indicator shows me the way. 😊

Long-term long investors can build up positions in the next correction. Swing traders are still on the lookout for long set-ups. Equity investors and option traders can use sector rotation to look for promising set-ups.

My medium-term analysis is positive.

I wish you all a successful start to 2024. Do your annual analysis of 2023, learn from it and make the right decisions for the new year 2024. 🚀💸

🟢 Status: 24.12.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: Eight positive weeks in a row. What a year-end rally. And the S&P 500 Index also reached new all-time highs last week, albeit only briefly. The NASDAQ and the Dow Jones even closed last week above their 2021/22 highs. But here, too, there are signs of a small, healthy correction or sideways phase.

Most important US dates in the new year: - 31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision

Long-term long investors can build up positions. Swing traders are still looking for long setups. Equity investors and option traders can use sector rotation to look for promising setups.

The medium-term analysis is positive.

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. 🎄

🟢 Status: 17.12.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: It goes up for 7 weeks in a row without a significant correction. Is this the start of a bull market for 2024? At the moment it looks like it. We will see whether the US Federal Reserve disappoints investors' expectations at some point and what happens next. At the moment, the annual rally is underway and the S&P 500 is still the weakest index. The Dow Jones has already climbed significantly to new all-time highs and the NASDAQ also made it last week. All good signs that the S&P 500 will soon follow suit.

Important US dates next week - Thu: 21.12. US gross domestic product (Q3) - Fri: 22.12. PCE core rate price index

Long-term oriented long investors can build up or expand positions. Swing traders and day traders are still looking for long setups. Equity investors are looking for promising setups with the help of sector rotation.

The medium-term analysis is positive.

I wish you all a pleasant pre-Christmas period. 🎄

🟢 Status: 10.12.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: The uptrend continues and many short traders had to close their positions again on Friday. In addition, there was a futures rollover, which means that all investors had to close their positions and reopen them in the next contract. This will probably lead to slightly falling prices in the first days of the coming week. As some large investors want to make a favorable rollover and try to push prices down.

Important US dates next week - Tue: 12.12. US consumer prices (inflation data) - Wed: 13.12. US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision

Long-term long investors can build up or expand positions. Swing traders and day traders are still looking for long setups. Equity investors are looking for promising setups with the help of sector rotation.

The medium-term analysis is positive.

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🟢 Status: 03.12.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: The uptrend continues and many short traders had to close their positions on Friday. The Dow Jones was the strongest US index last week. Driven by the surprisingly good quarterly figures from Salesforce, the Dow Jones almost reached its all-time high. Only +1.4% is still missing.

The S&P 500 is currently the weakest index, as it is the only index still trading below its 2023 highs.

Important US events next week - The next FED meeting will take place on 13.12. There will again be trend-setting information on US monetary policy for 2024. I assume that there will be no more surprises this year, but you can never be sure.

Long-term long investors can build up or expand positions. Swing traders and day traders are still looking for long setups. Equity investors are looking for promising setups with the help of sector rotation.

The medium-term analysis is positive.

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🟢 Status: 26.11.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: Volatility continues to fall and the S&P 500 continues to rise. So far there are no signs of weakness. The NASDAQ is once again ahead of the S&P 500 as the technology index hit new highs for the year last week. This is a good sign that the S&P 500 may also reach new annual highs this year.

Important US events in the coming week - Thursday: US inflation data - A further decline from 3.7 to 3.5 percent is expected.

In my opinion, it currently looks good that this figure will be reached or even undercut. This is because the oil price has fallen significantly in recent weeks, which confirms this scenario.

Long-term long investors can build up or expand positions. Swing traders and day traders continue to look for long setups. I am 100% invested in the ETF signal service.

The medium-term analysis is positive.

🟢 Status: 19.11.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: no warning

Comment: Volatility is falling and falling and the US indices have been unstoppable in the last 3 weeks. This was due to lower than expected inflation figures last week and producer prices were also well below expectations. This has boosted the stock markets, as an interest rate hike this year is therefore almost out of the question.

I currently expect the rally on the US equity market to continue until the end of November with only very minor corrections.

Important US dates next week - Tuesday & Wednesday: FED meeting minutes

Next week has only 3 trading days, as Thursday and Friday are Thanksgiving in the US.

Long-term long investors can build up or expand positions. Swing traders and day traders continue to look for long setups. I am 100% invested in the ETF signal service and entered about 3% cheaper than the last exit. This allows me to outperform the index.

The medium-term analysis is positive.

🟢 Status: 12.11.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green. Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data (no current data - publication on Monday)

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52 moving average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: Warning on (19./20./26.10.23)

Comment: A mini-correction on Thursday and a continuation of the trend on Friday. Two outside bars formed one after the other in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. A very rare sight. The year-end rally is in full swing. The market is currently very strong and is being driven by large market participants.

Important US dates next week: - Tuesday: US Consumer Price Index (inflation figures) - Wednesday: Producer Price Index

Long-term long investors can build up or expand positions. Short-term traders then look for long setups. I have placed an entry order in the ETF signal service.

The medium-term analysis is positive.

🟠 Status: 05.11.2023 🟠 My inloopo stock market indicator is orange.

Comment: As expected, the FED meeting determined the direction of the US stock markets.

The divergences of recent weeks have dissipated. And with an impulsive upward movement that really picked up speed after the FED meeting on Wednesday.

This is likely to have been the bottom for the time being, as the Fed's outlook for the coming year was more dovish (reluctant to raise interest rates further) than it has been for a long time.

The Q3 reporting season is drawing to a close. Only 57 companies will report next week. The biggest are Gilead Science on Tuesday, Disney on Wednesday and AstraZeneca on Thursday. None of these companies are likely to have a significant impact on the market as a whole.

The view of the stock market indicator is mixed. If the upward trend is confirmed in the coming week, the stock market indicator will turn green.

Long-term long investors can build up or expand their positions. Short-term traders are waiting for confirmation of the bottom formation and are then looking for long set-ups.

The medium-term analysis is brightening. Especially due to the FED's words. I am still waiting for the bottom to be completed. I find promising stocks, for example, by analyzing the sector rotation.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟠 Trend: rising ?!?

• 🔴 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: Warning on (19./20./26.10.23)

🔴 Status: 29.10.2023 🔴 My inloopo stock market indicator is red.

Comment: divergences as far as the eye can see. For example, volatility fell 2% on a weekly basis, while the S&P 500 Index fell 2.5%. Normally, volatility rises when prices fall.

But is this enough for a bottom and a trend reversal? I think the Federal Reserve will decide on Wednesday where we are headed. Will they continue to consider rate hikes and will the outlook for next year remain "Hawkish"? If so, it will probably go down another notch.

Until this important decision on Wednesday, I see first of all a volatile sideways phase, as the technology index NASDAQ has already demonstrated on Friday.

A look at the COT data shows that the large speculators are net long for the first time since June 2022. Do the large speculators perhaps have more information than we do?

163 more quarterly reports are due in the coming week, with Apple as the heavyweight on Thursday after the market close.

A look at the indicators of the inloopo stock market indicator shows a clear picture: Everything is on red.

Long-term oriented long investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for a bottoming out. Short-term oriented traders can look for short opportunities.

The medium-term analysis remains bearish/falling. A bottom formation is to be awaited.

Indicators:

• 🔴 COT data

• 🔴 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🔴 Trend: falling

• 🔴 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• 🔴 Spread: Warning (10/19/20/26/2013)

🔴 Status: 22.10.2023 🔴 My inloopo stock market indicator is red.

Comment: Never fight the FED is the saying. The FED remains Hawkish in the wording, i.e. it continues to think about another rate hike and only holds out the prospect of a maximum of two rate cuts next year. The wording rather points to a longer lasting high interest rate level.

This unsettles the U.S. stock markets and causes prices to fall significantly on Thursday and Friday. Also, the spread was in backwardation on Thursday and Friday, indicating a clear need for hedging by major market participants.

The situation remains tense. And until November 1 (next FED meeting), it will be difficult to find a bottom.

Rather, it currently looks as if the S&P 500 Index will once again run into the next support at 4200 points.

On Tuesday after the close of the stock market, Microsoft and Google will publish their quarterly figures. Facebook (Meta) follows on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday.

Long-term oriented long investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for a bottom to form. Short-term oriented traders can look for short opportunities.

The medium-term analysis is bearish/falling again for now.

Indicators:

• 🔴 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🔴 Trend: falling

• 🔴 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• 🔴 Spread: Warning

🟠 Status: 15.10.2023 🟠 My inloopo stock market indicator is orange.

Comment: Bottoming in all 3 US indices is underway. Will the continuation of the uptrend follow next week? Maybe Tesla's quarterly report on Wednesday will show us the way 😉 .

The reporting season is underway and has already started well. Three major U.S. banks exceeded expectations on Friday, but could not stop the price decline. To me, that's fine.

During the week, FED members have expressed the view that there will be no further rate hike at the next US rate decision on 01 November. The probabilities are in favor of this. 93% of investors do not see another rate hike coming.

Only volatility jumped up a bit too much for my taste on Friday.

The medium-term analysis is brightening, indicating a bottoming. The trend continuation to the upside is ahead. If the trend continuation occurs, I will be invested and trade all my strategies more aggressively long.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟠 Trend: bottoming / rising ???

• 🔴 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: No warning

🟠 Status: 08.10.2023 🟠 My inloopo stock market indicator is orange.

Comment: What is the difference from the previous week? And why is the inloopo stock market indicator on orange?

Orange means attention for me: An order can be placed in the ETF signal service.

Volatility made a significant jump up on Tuesday, surpassing the previous week's prices. However, it fell back sharply on Friday and was even almost below the level of the beginning of the week. In addition, the S&P 500 Index missed a positive weekly candle by only 4 points. What a rally on Friday on good news and bad news.

The NASDAQ continues to be the strongest U.S. index and again achieved a positive weekly candle and in addition a trend change in the daily chart.

The news situation is upside-down: bad news are good news. Friday clearly showed that.

Next week, inflation figures will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, and on Friday, the new reporting season begins with the major banks JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citi Group. This will provide the first glimpse of how robust the U.S. economy really is in 2023.

Medium-term analysis is brightening, but still pointing down in the S&P 500 Index. There are signs of a bottom forming. I have a feeling that a trend reversal will occur next week.

Indicators:

• 🔴 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🔴 Trend: falling

• 🔴 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: No warning

🔴 Status: 01.10.2023 🔴 My inloopo stock market indicator is red.

Comment: The mixed picture is strengthening. The NASDAQ is significantly stronger than the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. A positive weekly candle is even forming in the NASDAQ. Seasonality (5,10&15 year) bottoms in the next week and then turns up. We will see if this is the case again this year and the major market participants begin to drive prices higher.

A short-term divergence of the S&P 500 price to volume and open interest is already in place. However, this is much more pronounced in the NASDAQ. My tip: When the rally starts, it will be strongest in the technology indexes. The coming weekend could confirm this!

The sector rotation already shows strength in the energy sector and financials. These are also positive signs for the coming months.

The medium-term analysis is still down, but there are signs of a bottom. It is still too early for a year-end rally. Keep calm and wait and see is the order of the day.

Indicators:

• 🔴 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🔴 Trend: falling

• 🔴 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: No warning

🔴 Status: 24.09.2023 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.

Comment: The U.S. Federal Reserve leaves interest rates at 5.25%, as expected. However, as expected, this was not the driving force behind the price movements. The decisive factor was the outlook. It is possible that there will be another rate hike this year. And for 2024, too, later and significantly smaller rate cuts are currently expected. This is because the FED expects the U.S. economy to grow much faster than expected. In 2023 over +2% and also for 2024 economic growth is expected to be higher than just a few months ago.

This justifies a relatively stable interest rate level next year and thus no rapid rate cuts.

In the short term, the stock markets are reacting negatively to these statements. But if the U.S. economy is really that robust, this will soon be reflected in rising stock prices again.

It is interesting to note that the NSADAQ index is much stronger than the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Both indexes have hit new lows, with the NASDQ so far holding above its August 18, 2023 low.

Are technology stocks the safe haven? Or is this the harbinger of risk-on mode for the year-end rally?

For now, it's wait and see. Capital protection is currently the order of the day, and then invest again at the right time.

The medium-term analysis is currently bearish. It is still too early for a year-end rally. Keep calm and wait and see is the order of the day.

Indicators:

• 🔴 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🔴 Trend: falling

• 🔴 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: None Warning

Are you invested in ETF's? Did you pay attention if you invest in a physical or synthetic ETF? If you want to know more about it read my blog article about it.

🔴 Status: 17.09.2023 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.

Comment: Last week was marked by the expiration of futures and options on Friday. This event only occurs four times a year and a range formed in the S&P 500. It was noticeable that although the week ended on a negative note, volatility fell slightly and the large speculators continued to reduce their short positions. In June, they were short over 400,000 contracts and currently they are only around 100,000 contracts. For me, this is a bullish sign for the last months of the year. We just have to wait patiently for the end of the ongoing correction.

Next week Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold another press conference and it looks like interest rates will remain unchanged. If this is the case, the wording in the statement will be crucial for the market reaction.

The medium-term analysis is not clear at the moment. It is still too early for a year-end rally. Keep calm and wait and see is the order of the day for now.

Indicators:

• 🔴 COT data

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟠 Trend: sideways / falling ??

• 🔴 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: No warning

🟠 Status: 10.09.2023 🟠 The inloopo stock market indicator is orange.

Comment: Now it gets exciting. Will the S&P 500 Index follow the seasonal trend or will the uptrend on a daily basis remain intact? Next week Friday, Sept. 15, 2023, the S&P 500 September futures contract expires and it rolls into the December contract. Thus, for the longer-term outlook, the current September contract no longer matters, as half of the trading volume in the December contract has already taken place on Friday.

If the S&P 500 December contract rises above 4548 points in the coming week, this is a bullish sign. If this does not happen, we will have to wait until the next Fed meeting on 20.09.2023 for a directional decision.

The sector rotation and the comparison of the US indices shows that the NASDAQ index is currently the strongest index. For me, this is a bullish sign for the coming months. Now the only question is the right timing.

The medium-term analysis is not clear at the moment. It is still too early for a year-end rally. Keep calm and wait and see is the order of the day for now.

Indicators:

• 🔴 COT signal

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🔴 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: No warning

🟢 Status: 03.09.2023 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.

Comment: Everything already green again? Was that already the summer correction, which should actually last until early/mid-October?

The coming week will decide it.

Last week showed once again that the stock market is a game of emotions. Today's prices are driven by the long-term outlook. Last week, much worse than expected unemployment figures were reported. The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.8%. The S&P 500 index then jumped sharply, making further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve less likely. And this prospect of no further rate hikes was much more important for the long-term economic outlook than a "few" more unemployed.

The inloopo stock market indicator is back on green and I am now waiting for the entry signal in the S&P500 ETF signal service. Next weekend we will know more.

The medium-term analysis is currently positive again, even if the correction was a bit too short. It is still clearly too early for a year-end rally.

Indicators:

• 🟢 COT signal

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🟢 Trend: rising

• 🟢 Momentum

• 🔴 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: No warning

🔴 Status: 27.08.2023 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.

Comment: The summer correction takes a small break and an inside bar forms on the weekly chart in the S&P 500 Index. Volatility is falling and at 15.67 is almost back to levels seen before the correction began at the end of July. Still, it looks to me like we will see lower prices in the coming weeks. The big speculators are slightly increasing their short positions again and the downtrend on a daily basis is valid. Seasonality is also in favor of falling prices.

The medium-term analysis is negative. However, it currently looks like this is just a correction until the start of the year-end rally.

Indicators:

• 🔴 COT signal

• 🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average

• 🔴 Trend: downward

• 🔴 Momentum

• 🟢 Divergence

• ⚪️ Spread: No warning

🌟 Want to learn more about the inloopo stock market indicator? 👉 Read through my blog article.